Home » L.A.’s ‘off the charts’ dryness keeps risk of new fires high. Rain is desperately needed – Jobsmaa.com

L.A.’s ‘off the charts’ dryness keeps risk of new fires high. Rain is desperately needed – Jobsmaa.com

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Winds are expected to continue to dissipate this week, but it's shaping up to be a brief reprieve for fire-scarred Southern California.

Significant fire weather is expected to return to Los Angeles and Ventura counties early next week. But more than wind, the region is at risk from severe drought and lack of rain.

This article is provided free of charge to keep our community safe and supported during these devastating fires.

“It's really a broken record. While Santa Ana winds are typical and normal this time of year, it's not very dry,” said Alex Tardi, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in San Diego. Coming, we haven't even seen it.”

Southern California has its driest winter on record. Oct. Tardi said most of the region received 5% or less of its average rainfall during the water year that began on the 1st.

Downtown LA has received 0.16 of an inch of rain since Oct. 1 — 3% of the season's average, or 5.56 inches.

The low for this 3½-month period in Downtown L.A. was the water year that began on Oct. 1, 1903 — only a trace of rain was detected until Jan. 13, 1904, according to data shared by Tardi. The early part of the 1962-63 water year was also very dry, with Downtown LA receiving only 0.16 inches of rain on January 13, 1963.

Downtown LA's annual average rainfall is 14.25 inches.

For many parts of Southern California, “it's a dry start to any water year, and you can see extreme fire behavior with ignitions,” Tardi said.

In San Diego, Oct. 1 to Jan. 0.14 of an inch has fallen till the 14th. This is the driest start to a water year in the 174-year record. According to Miguel Miller, a forecaster at the National Weather Service office in San Diego, Oct. 1, 1962 to Jan. 14, 1963 until 0.35 inches of rain, the previous record for that period.

January is the peak month for worsening fire weather conditions Santa Ana Wind – Powerful winds that form when high pressure over Nevada and Utah scream cold air toward low pressure areas along the California coast.

Air from the high deserts—from the northeast—flows down through California's mountains and valleys, drying, compressing and heating the air, drying out vegetation as it blows.

Tardi said Santa Ana air levels are typically high in January, but it's not typical to be dry at the same time.

Others agreed.

“In my career, I've never seen Santa Ana events so far above normal winter rainfall,” said retired climatologist Bill Patzert.

In the coming days, Monday and Tuesday are the most worrisome at this point, with a 70% chance Red flag warnings For Los Angeles and Ventura counties, one indicates a high chance of hazardous fire behavior, according to the National Weather Service.

“The big story is that it looks very dry throughout next week, with the risk of red flag warnings increasing,” said Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist with the weather service's office in Oxnard.

Humidity could drop below 10% next week, meaning plants will be particularly bone dry and vulnerable.

“It almost seems off the charts,” Kittel said.

As for the wind, there is growing hope that moderate Santa Anas will develop. As of Thursday, forecasters estimated a 40% chance of a moderate Santa Ana wind event on Monday and 60% on Tuesday.

There is still a slight chance of a strong Santa Ana wind event.

Winds next week are expected to be affected by an “inside slider” — a type of low-pressure system moving from Canada into interior California and Nevada that is expected to bring air from high pressure over the Great Basin, but much-needed rain.

The system is called an “inside slider” because “it slides in, never goes over the water, never gives us a chance for rain,” Kittel said.

High pressure, which will send cold, dry air to Southern California next week, is being affected by cold air expected to move from the Arctic into the northeastern United States, Tardi said.

“We're going to be on the dry side of windy, cold air,” he said.

Before the winds blow next week, there will be a welcome few days of severe fire weather after the devastating fire that flattened large areas in and around Altadena and Pacific Palisades, destroying thousands of structures, including many homes.

“So the moral of the story is, fortunately, we're going to get rid of all of this this weekend, but unfortunately, it's going to be short-lived,” Kittel said of the dangerous fire weather.

An army of firefighters worked for days to stop the Eaton and Palisades fires from growing as weather conditions set the region ablaze. The Eaton Fire, which has burned 14,100 acres, was 55% contained Thursday, down from 45% a day earlier.

The Palisades fire, which has burned 23,700 acres in west Los Angeles, is 27% contained, up from 17% the day before, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said.

Residents are frustrated with not being able to return home as firefighting efforts progress. More than 150,000 Angelenos are under evacuation orders and warnings.

Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said during a news conference Thursday that it will be at least a week before some people begin to return to their neighborhoods. For others, the wait can be long.

Officials are still combing burned properties for additional casualties, and zones are littered with hazardous materials, downed power lines and other hazards that now make it untenable for residents.

“We're doing the best we can because we know it's a challenge for our residents,” Marrone said.

For now, forecasters do not expect to issue a warning next week that would indicate an extreme red flag warning, which is called a “particularly dangerous situation.”

The “Extremely Dangerous Situation” The Extreme Red Flag fire weather warning issued this week peaked Wednesday afternoon for the San Fernando Valley, parts of Ventura County and the Grapevine area of ​​Interstate 5.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph have traditionally been observed Santa Ana Wind CorridorIt stretches southwest through places including Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Ventura, Oxnard, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks.

Wednesday's winds were about as expected, but Tuesday's winds were lower than expected for the day. One possible reason is that the difference in pressure between oceans and deserts isn't as strong as the computers projected, Kittel said.

Another possible reason is that a low-pressure system rotating off the coast — where Santa Ana winds travel to the west — was pushed a little farther north than expected, Kittel said.

Disconnected from the prevailing jet stream, that low-pressure system called the “cutoff low” is less predictable than if it were connected to the jet stream.

Cutoff lows are so notorious for forecasters that they're referred to as “weathermen's woes,” Kittel said.

Temperatures will be much cooler than normal in the coming days, with highs of just 58 degrees in Redondo Beach, Thousand Oaks and Oxnard on Friday; 59 in Downtown LA, Long Beach and Covina; 60 in Canoga Park; and 61 in Santa Clarita.

“On the bright side of our weather concerns, the humidity will continue to climb, especially after that [Thursday]”Reduces fire weather concerns,” Kittel said. As humidity increases Friday and Saturday, there should be fewer fire weather concerns, although localized winds of 25 mph and 40 mph are possible from the northwest.

A low-pressure system sitting off the Southern California coast will move in, but the chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday is slim, Kittel said.

“It will eventually move ashore, and all the forecasts have it south of Los Angeles County, so the chance of rain is very low,” Kittel said.

Southern California will not be very safe from wildfires unless there is plenty of rain. Forecasters say there is no significant chance of rain till Jan 25.

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