Home » Worsening wind forecast brings new L.A.-area fire risk beginning Monday – Jobsmaa.com

Worsening wind forecast brings new L.A.-area fire risk beginning Monday – Jobsmaa.com

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Santa Ana's wind forecast for Southern California has worsened, and they expect to issue a red flag fire weather warning beginning Monday with “the risk of major fire growth” if ignitions occur.

“It's now a strong Santa Ana wind event and extreme fire weather,” said Rose Schoenfeld, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, adding that the expected deterioration in weather conditions from the previous forecast.

A red flag warning — indicating severe fire weather and rapid fire spread — could be in effect for Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties beginning at 10 a.m. Monday. It will continue till 10 pm on Tuesday.

The Palisades and Eaton fires remain in a red flag warning area, as do the Santa Monica and San Gabriel Valleys. Areas outside the red flag warning zone include the LA Basin, downtown LA, Torrance and Long Beach, and coastal San Diego and Orange counties.

Red flag warning map

A red flag warning — indicating a high risk of dangerous fire weather conditions and rapid spread with any new ignition — could go into effect Monday for large parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

(National Weather Service)

Red flag warning map

Red flag warnings, which indicate severe fire weather and rapid spread in the event of ignition, are expected to go into effect Monday in Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties.

(National Weather Service)

Ventura County will be the area of ​​greatest concern as this is a traditional Santa Ana wind event with east to northeast winds.

In the high-risk area this week, sustained winds from the east and northeast could reach 25 mph to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph, along the coast and valleys in a traditional Santa Ana wind corridor — stretching to the southwest. , from Palmdale to Santa Clarita and Ventura en route to the coast.

In the mountains and foothills, sustained winds will be between 30 mph and 45 mph, with gusts between 60 mph and 80 mph. Wind gusts up to 65 mph can cause damage.

In LA County, areas of greatest concern are the western San Fernando Valley, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, western San Gabriel Mountains and the Grapevine area of ​​Interstate 5.

NWS infographic shows areas of greatest concern

(National Weather Service)

Winds are expected to be strong Monday night through Tuesday morning.

“It's time to act again,” Schoenfeld said, warning that people should be prepared to leave and take steps including preparing medicine, refueling cars and checking evacuation routes. Sign up for emergency notifications from local authorities.

That means protecting loose outdoor items like patio furniture; adjusting travel times between Monday night and Tuesday morning; charging electronics, flashlights and battery packs; Replenishment of emergency generators; and moving cars away from trees that appear fragile, Schoenfeld said.

experts warning People object to keeping certain items within 5 feet of your house, such as outdoor furniture, umbrellas, and trash and recycling bins. It's also a good idea to remove all dead or live weeds from this area, such as clearing gutters, roofs, decks, porches, and stairs of combustible materials such as leaves and needles.

“And then when the wind starts, stay away from trees, windows. Use extreme caution on anything that could cause a fire,” Schoenfeld said.

Santa Ana wind impacts

(National Weather Service)

Winds can be so powerful they can knock over big rigs and motor homes and trigger power outages that last for days, the weather service said.

At this stage, forecasters do not say there is a strong possibility of issuing a “particularly dangerous situation” development of a red flag warning, which indicates a serious red flag warning. At this time, this Santa Ana wind event does not appear to be as severe as the January 7-8 event, when strong winds were forecast across the LA Basin and over a much wider area.

“This event has a different focus. It's more focused on Ventura County,” Schoenfeld said, and more focused on L.A. County, the western part of the county and its higher elevations.

However, strong Santa Ana winds across much of the region, combined with unusually dry air and parched vegetation after eight months of no rain, are expected to increase critical fire behavior risk.

Very dry conditions are expected throughout the week, with Tuesday expected to be the driest, the weather service said. Areas such as the western San Fernando Valley, Santa Clarita, Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, and Fillmore could see humidity drops of up to 5%.

Fire weather concerns will continue through the week, Schoenfeld said, with more Santa Ana winds possible through Thursday. The weather service may end the red flag warning Tuesday or extend it through Thursday.

Santa Ana Wind Powerful winds that form during high pressure over Nevada and Utah scream cold air toward areas of low pressure along the California coast. The Santa Ana wind season is usually from October to March.

Air dries, compresses, and warms as it hits the Sounding Mountains in Southern California, and from the high deserts—from the northeast—flows down through California's mountains and valleys, drying vegetation as the wind blows.

There is hope of rain in another week. But at this point, it doesn't appear to be the soak needed to end the fire season, Schoenfeld said.

There is a 20% to 30% chance of rain, especially in January. Between the 25th and 27th, Schoenfeld said, there is a 10% chance of thunderstorms.

“It doesn't look like a completely drenching rain over a wide area,” Schoenfeld said. “It's honestly bad news for our fire weather season going forward.”

There's also no strong sign of a moderate atmospheric river heading toward LA, but the slight chance of thunderstorms raises concerns about the potential for landslides and mudslides in recently burned areas.

So far this winter, Southern California has been stuck in an unusually dry state as Santa Ana winds have returned intermittently. The region is stuck in one of the driest — if not the driest — winter starts in recorded history.

Downtown LA has seen only 0.16 inches of rain since the start of the water year on Oct. 1. That's only 3% of the average for this point in the water year, which is 5.89 inches for downtown. Downtown LA's annual average rainfall is 14.25 inches.

It's unusual for winter rains to start this late, putting Southern California at high risk for fire weather. Santa Ana winds are very common in January and are the strongest of the season.

Lately, the path of the jet stream has been far away from California, denying California storms from the Pacific Ocean to northern British Columbia and Alaska, said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in San Diego.

This is what the weather looked like in January 2022 when it snowed in the Sierra Nevada.

“It's been an absolute block. So everything is losing California,” Tardy said of the winter storms. “It seems like we can't catch a break.”

Cold air from Canada, which dominates the weather system, worsens the situation, and keeps California on the dry, airy side of the jet stream, not the side that provides precipitation. It sets up a high pressure structure over Nevada and Utah, sending winds toward Southern California in search of low pressure along the coast.

Times staff writer Melody Gutierrez contributed to this report.

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