When flames destroyed Rhea Cassino's Altadena home and damaged the home of her partner, Emily Allen, a terrifying situation led to what felt like the impossible.
In an effort to find a semi-permanent home while they rebuild, the Cassinos toured about 10 homes over four or five days, seeing at least 30 families stroll into one home in just 10 minutes. Under pressure, they are offered to pay The Pasadena rental is $250 more than asking price.
Although Cassino said some prospective tenants were over-offering, they were accepted at first.
“We didn't know what we were going to do,” Cassino, 65, said. “I feel very lucky.”
Torn fires Altadena And Pacific Palisades has created a mad rush for a place to live, as thousands of newly homeless families enter an already strained housing market.
In interviews, housing and disaster recovery experts said the crisis is likely to put rapid upward pressure on rents in near-devastation areas, at least in the short term, as displaced people try to stay close to their communities while the crisis creates an uncertain future. As housing costs rise in a market with no room to move, some existing tenants may be forced out to make room.
“Evacuations tend to increase post-disasters,” said Andrew Rumback, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute think tank.
Los Angeles has dealt with disaster before.
In 1994, the Northridge earthquake destroyed or severely damaged tens of thousands of homes. The toll on the Palisades and Eaton fires is ongoing, but according to the latest estimates, the conflicts severely damaged or destroyed more than 11,100 single-family homes and more than 240 multi-family properties.
It's not known how many units were in those multifamily structures, but it's unlikely that the quake destroyed how many units the fire destroyed.
But in 1994, the San Fernando Valley and downtown LA had more than 8% rental vacancy, and families quickly resettled with the help of federal rental subsidies, according to research by disaster recovery expert Mary Comerio. UC Berkeley
During this time, as of 2023, less than 4% of rentals within the city and county were vacant, census data show, and a significant number of landlords were ignoring temporary affordability rules. fire.
Officials have promised to breakBut even if everyone follows the law, a raise of up to 10% – like the one paid by Cousineau – is allowed. Low vacancy rates mean fire evacuees will have to travel farther in their housing search, driving up rents in a large area, experts said.
Michael Lenz, a professor of urban planning at UCLA, describes the situation as akin to musical chairs: A wave of displaced people taking up homes close to the fire, driving up rents there and forcing others to look for different neighborhoods. Where the process starts from scratch.
On Saturday, the dynamic can be seen at an open house in Palms — a 10-mile drive from hard-hit Pacific Palisades.
Simon Beardmore, the listing agent for the three-bedroom single-family rental home, said he had received more than 100 inquiries in the days leading up to the showing.
Around noon, two women stood outside, waiting for Beardmore to let them inside the home, which was listed for $10,500 a month.
“Fellow Palisadian?” One asked the other, who replied yes, she was, and yes, she too had lost her home.
Within 40 minutes, at least six groups of people toured the home — all displaced from the Palisades fire. There are at least two additional homes to look at, including one nearby in Culver City.
“It's not going to be immediate neighborhoods, but two, three, four neighborhoods are going to feel these effects,” Lenz said.
Some real estate agents notice a shift beyond that.
“Everyone in our office is getting calls non-stop,” said Nyla Patzner, a Coachella Valley agent with Desert Sotheby's International Realty.
Michelle King, a Santa Barbara real estate agent and property manager at King & Co., said luxury listings north of $20,000 a month are in high demand.
“All Palisades are people,” King said. “When everyone leaves the cities and buys or rents in quieter areas, it's like an epidemic again.”
Research has found evictions increase after a disaster, said Rumbach, an Urban Institute expert, because some landlords take the opportunity to evict tenants. Increasing the rent themselves can force people to move out if the cost exceeds their budget.
But if such a migration occurs, there are likely to be limits.
Most of the destroyed units appear to be single-family homes, and experts said the upward pressure on rents in general will be further muted. houses Small in size and far from fire.
With a total of 3.7 million homes in L.A., someone looking for a one-bedroom apartment in Central L.A. right now, for example, isn't likely to see much of a difference in price, even if demand is slightly higher, he said. Jose Loya, another urban planning professor at UCLA.
“LA is still a very big place,” he said.
Experts said the time should also reduce the impact on rentals in areas near fires Rebuilding Reduces stress.
However, rebuilding could take years, and for Pacific Palisades and Altadena, in particular, there are more questions.
If fewer people want to own homes in burned areas, which could be a construction zone in the future and burn again, home prices may fall.
The opposite can happen, Rumback said. In other disasters, many people can't or don't want to to recreateand sell their lots to others who tend to build more expensive homes.
“We call it catastrophic gentrification,” Rumbach said.
Juhi Bansal and her husband, Nicholas Gerbe, were renting in Altadena and their landlord wanted to rebuild the one-bedroom house they had called home for nearly 15 years.
Musician couples have to make different decisions. Before the fire, Bansal said she wanted Altadena as a relatively quiet oasis in a giant metropolis, but was trying to convince her husband to move somewhere less expensive and with less traffic.
Now, after seeing the community come together to help, Bansal said he's more inclined to stay. They have to find a place to live.
“I was looking at some rentals on Craigslist,” Bansal said. “They're a lot more expensive than what we're paying and they're smaller.”
Times staff writer Sandhya Kambambatti contributed to this report.