Home » Amid wildfires, Los Angeles’ winter rains to finally arrive. But dry weather could soon return – Jobsmaa.com

Amid wildfires, Los Angeles’ winter rains to finally arrive. But dry weather could soon return – Jobsmaa.com

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• Weekend storms are expected to bring some relief to firefighters
Landslides are possible in recently burned areas if Varl is a thunderstorm, but the risk from this storm is low
Dry weather could return after the weekend storm, raising the risk of fire weather returning in February

With red flag fire weather warnings finally ending Friday morning, Southern California is set for its first real rain of the winter, providing some welcome relief to the region's endless firefighting efforts.

This week brought several new wildfire threats to Southern California, including the Hughes Fire, which has burned more than 10,000 acres around Castaic Lake north of Santa Clarita since Wednesday. As of late Thursday, the Hughes Fire was 36% contained. The 23,400-acre Palisade Fire was 75% contained and the 14,000-acre Eaton Fire was 95% contained.

Yet there are concerns that this weekend's rain may provide only temporary relief. This weekend, a dry spell could return – raising serious questions about whether dangerous fire weather can return soon enough. One big problem: The Santa Ana wind season runs through February and March, and one weekend of mild precipitation doesn't make up for more weeks of dry air and weather that should work.

Southern California has had a historically dry start to winters — one for the record books, which scatter records that have been collected since the late 19th century. The region is running fast to catch up with the acute shortage of rain before the end of the winter monsoon season.

“We're not in for a drought in this area, it's not the depth of a winter — it's not the depth of a winter — and it's forecast for Orange County and the Inland Empire,” said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego. “It's really serious for Southern California.”

Southern California has been stuck in a punishing weather pattern since October, where not a single significant storm has passed through the region. In January, the weather system worsened — blocking “not only Southern California, but the West — south of Seattle” in the storm's path, Tardi said.

Seven separate Santa Ana wind events hit Southern California in January alone, resulting in a lack of rain, a dangerous combination in creating fire weather conditions as air and vegetation dry out, making brush especially flammable, Tardi said. There have been a total of 15 Santa Ana events since November, Tardi said.

“The Santa Ana winds have really taken their toll on sucking moisture out of the atmosphere,” Tardi said. “There is no ocean layer because it was thrown into the ocean. The desert has come to the coast.”

Concerned about a dry start to February

After this weekend's rain, “we're going back, mostly, into a dry pattern” for Southern California, Tardi said.

In the record books in San Diego, Orange County, the Inland Empire, as well as Los Angeles International Airport, UCLA, Van Nuys, Woodland Hills and Camarillo, Oct.

Elsewhere, it was the second-dryest start to the water year, including places like downtown Los Angeles, which had an Oct. 1 to 0.16 of an inch of rain has been received. It's only 2.5% of downtown LA's average point in the season – 6.38 inches of rain. The annual average rainfall for the city is 14.25 inches.

The first real rain of the winter is expected

Rain this weekend is expected to bring a welcome reprieve from the almost non-stop fire weather of the past two weeks. Part of Southern California has had red flag warnings for 15 of the past 18 days, ending at 10 a.m. Friday.

Downtown Los Angeles is expected to eclipse the record for the lowest rainfall, which was one-tenth of an inch of rain in a calendar day on May 5. As of Friday, it's been 264 days from downtown LA. That's a record for downtown — the previous mark was 253 consecutive days, from February 25, 2008, to November 3, 2008.

At this point, forecasters are expecting widespread rain this weekend. Between Saturday and Monday, Downtown LA, Long Beach and Santa Clarita could get three-fifths of an inch of rain, while Canoga Park and Fillmore could get a half-inch of rain and Thousand Oaks, two-fifths of an inch of rain.

Rain forecasts

(National Weather Service)

San Diego, Anaheim, Irvine, San Clemente, Riverside and Lake Elsinore could see 0.7 to 1 inch of rain. San Bernardino, Ontario, Temecula, Oceanside, Escondido and Mira Mesa could receive 1 to 1.5 inches of rain.

Rain forecast

(National Weather Service)

But it's a tricky storm system to forecast, said meteorologist Ryan Kittel of the weather service's Oxnard office, which issues forecasts for Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. The storm is being fueled by a low pressure system moving south from Canada, and current forecasts place the low pressure system off the coast of Southern California.

If that low pressure system moves slightly westward, more rain than expected is possible; Kittel said if it pushes a bit further east, the storm could bring less rain than expected.

Showers will begin early Saturday morning and last through Monday night. But the highest chance of rain will remain Saturday night into Sunday, Kittel said of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.

San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties will have the greatest chance of rain Sunday and Monday.

Risk of thunderstorms and landslides

Often, falling rain is a light intensity that spreads over several hours.

But the region has a 10% to 20% chance of thunderstorms, which could occur at any time, and isolated, brief downpours could bring rates of about half an inch per hour, Kittel said.

That's a significant number because it's the starting point for debris flows for recently burned areas—a type of damaging landslide in which water flows quickly downhill, carrying soil, rocks, branches, and sometimes massive boulders.

Kittel says there will be two locations in this thunderstorm region. The question is whether they will look right for recently burned areas.

Put it all together, Kittel said there's a 5% to 10% chance of debris from this weekend's storm damaging recently burned areas in Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

There is also a moderate risk of small hail.

Snow levels may reach 3,500 to 4,500 feet above sea level. The San Gabriel Mountains could see 5 to 10 inches of snow. The Grapevine section of Interstate 5 has the potential for an inch of snow, especially Sunday, which could cause delays on the freeway, Kittel said.

Snowfall totals

(National Weather Service)

Wrightwood and Big Bear Lake could get 8 inches to 12 inches of snow. This raises the possibility that authorities may require motorists to install chains on tires when driving into mountainous areas such as Big Bear.

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